Israel: Finish the job quickly or lose

The terrorists will win if Israel's operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah becomes drawn out.

That's probably calculated into Hezbollah's strategy. There can be no finer method of inflaming Arabs and Muslims - thus generating more extremists for terrorists to recruit - than a protracted Israeli campaign.

With talk of another long-term presence in Lebanon, it looks like the Israelis don't get it.

The effects on Israel could be catastrophic. The US-Israeli friendship (it is not an alliance, because there is no mutual defense treaty) could stretch to the breaking point if a protracted conflict draws the United States into choosing between its support for Israel and the success of the war in Iraq.

While right now Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others are more fearful of Hezbollah than they are of the Israelis, Hezbollah has become a popular David against what Arabs see as an Israeli Goliath, and the group's underdog image will help recruit a new generation of terrorists under the sponsorship of Iran. A drawn-out conflict could dissolve US support.

So if Israel is serious about destroying Hezbollah - and about fighting fourth generation warfare in general - it must hurry up and get the job over with, and not fall into the trap of peace processes and international troop presences in Lebanon.

Such things seldom end conflicts. They only postpone them. If Israel doesn't finish the job quickly, it - and westward-looking Arab governments, to the extent that they exist - will lose.